Kamis, 06 September 2007

FX Awaits Data Barrage, CB Meetings by Korman Tam

At 4:30 AM UK July Manufacturing Production m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.2%)
UK July Manufacturing Production y/y (exp 1.2%, prev 0.9%)
UK July Industrial Production m/m (exp 0.2%, prev 0.1%)
UK July Industrial Production y/y (exp 1.0%, prev 0.8%)
At 6:00 AM Germany July Industrial Orders m/m (exp –2.5%, prev 4.6%)
At 7:00 AM Bank of England Monetary Policy Decision (exp 5.75%, prev 5.75%)
At 7:45 AM ECB Monetary Policy Decision (exp 4.0%, prev 4.0%)
At 8:30 AM ECB Pres Trichet Press Conference
US Q2 Productivity (exp 2.4%, prev 1.8%)
US Q2 Labor Cost (exp 1.6%, prev 2.1%)
US Weekly Jobless Claims (exp 330k, prev 334k)
US July Building Permits (exp –5.3%, prev –0.4%)
At 10:00 AM US August non-manufacturing ISM (exp 54.8, prev 55.8)
Canada August Ivey PMI

The yen maintains its strength against the majors in early Tokyo trading as persistent worries over the global economic outlook and credit conditions remain. The currency market will derive its direction from a barrage of economic data and central bank decisions on Thursday. Reports from the US continue to reveal further deterioration in the housing market, with traders pondering to what extent the FOMC will allow conditions to worsen before moving to ease the Federal funds rate.

Data slated for release today include US Q2 productivity, labor cost, weekly jobless claims, July building permits and August non-manufacturing ISM. Productivity is expected to improve to 2.4% in Q2, compared with 1.8% from the first quarter. Labor costs in Q2 are seen slipping to 1.6%, down from 2.1% in Q1. Weekly jobless claims are largely unchanged from the previous week, down slightly to 330k versus 334k. Meanwhile, the August non-manufacturing ISM survey is forecast to decline to 54.8 from 55.8 – but remain above the key 50-level, which distinguishes expansion from contraction.

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